United States trade official Mike Froman announced today that a British exit from the EU would lead to Britain being cut off from preferential treatment that they would get in a trade deal, if they remain a part of the Union. The official said that Britain would have to face the same tariffs and restrictions that the emerging economies – e.g. China, India & Brazil – also have to face, as the US is not interested in making bilateral trade deals, but more so in regional ones, such as the TPP which was agreed upon recently (convenient example there). It got me thinking that foreign powers are seriously putting up a fight – including strong-arming Britain in this case – to the keep the country a part of the EU.

During his state visit President Xi Jinping also made a statement saying that it would be in Britain’s best interests to remain part of a united Europe. President Obama already made it clear in June that he would prefer Britain in Europe, Norway – one of the models of the vote to leave lobby for Britain outside the EU – has also confirmed that there are significant benefits the UK enjoys as a member of the Union that Norway does not enjoy, which makes Britain’s position preferable. It seems that the leave lobby will be hard pressed to find big names abroad to support their case (although you could make the argument that this is precisely what they do not want to do). The lobby has however based many of its arguments on a series of assumptions that rely on the situations of other powers – and now one by one, these are being closed down. This one is particularly poignant as this is one of the major economic arguments for Britain to leave the EU – getting a preferential trade deal with the US, rather than wait for TTIP (the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) to be concluded. It is interesting to see (and from my perspective a positive development), though as a commentator it does seem like Britain is being backed into a corner over the issue, to the extent that it would simply have to agree to be part of the EU to survive as a globally competitive player.

It makes me wonder whether this is how Scotland felt during their referendum last year. The pro-independence campaign claimed that an independent Scotland could survive in Europe, and that it could keep the pound, and that oil would sustain their economy like Norway. Yet one by one, foreign powers (Britain included on the subject of the pound) shut down those arguments, backing Scotland into a corner and scaring them into staying. I have to say that as a supporter of Britain as a permanent member of the EU, this is not the answer. It’s almost like when you get into an argument with one of your friends, and then all your other friends saying that they won’t talk to you any more if you don’t sort it out and stick with them. That’s not the reason to be someone’s friend.

Of course, I can’t (nor can anyone in Britain) stop foreign leaders from making statements about Britain’s position in the EU, or stop them trying to persuade us one way or the other on the subject. However the trick here will be for the ‘in’ lobby to not take these arguments as pillars of their campaign, because, again looking to Scotland, it did not work. Scotland is still undecided over the independence issue, and false moves from the government in Westminster could trigger another referendum in the next few years. The outcome of that referendum may well be less favourable to unionists. In the context of the Britain in Europe, people don’t want to be left with a bad taste in their mouth after the vote; you can’t leave them feeling they made the wrong choice, or were forced into doing it by a bullying America, or were scared of the unknown. They have to vote because they believe its the right choice, and there are many good reasons that make staying in Europe the right choice. Of course you can’t bury the facts of the matter, but you have to use more than facts to get people to believe.

Those who believe in Britain will never be scared into believing in the EU

Sources: FT