Monday 23rd November 2015

Weekend updates of European news, including further development after last week’s Paris attacks across the EU, including an increased terror alert in Belgium, Franco-Russian rapprochement, EU Council & German politics. 

Belgium on high alert: The FT reported on Saturday that Belgium raised its terrorism level alert to its highest level after receiving “credible intelligence” that Brussels was under a specific and imminent threat of terrorist attack. This has led to the shutting down of public transport in the city, the advice by the government to avoid public gatherings and the flooding of the streets with military personnel. The advice about gatherings led to the cancellation of almost all sporting and cultural events in the city on Saturday. Both Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel, and Foreign Minister Didier Reynders, announced on Saturday that the information had all the necessary components of a specific and imminent threat. The raising of the threat level resulted in an effective shut down of the city, despite the rest of the country remaining on a level 3 alert. Brussels’ Mayors said that there was a particular worry abut police stations – the target of a terrorist plot in January. People will have to ring for assistance instead of going to police stations. Interior Minister Jan Jambon said that “the situation is serious, but under control”. Tension in the Belgian capital has been high since it was revealed the only survivor of the Paris attack – Salah Abdeslam – drove back to Brussels after the attack was over, to the Brussels neighbourhood of Molenbeek. Belgian authorities have been conducting raids all throughout last week, however the majority of those arrested have been released again. In per capita terms, the small western-European nation has seen the highest number of residents leave for Syria. The situation in Brussels remained on Sunday, and will remain in force on Monday.

Franco-Russian rapprochement led in the wake of Paris attacks: Until the attacks in Paris last week Franco-Russian cooperation over the response to the Syrian Civil War had been tense at best, however that has all changed. Russian warships were ordered on Tuesday to coordinate with the French aircraft carrier Charles-de-Gaulle, a clear demonstration of Franco-Russian rapprochement. France 24 reported on Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Russian military in a meeting last week that it was imperative to work with the French Navy as allies. French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced on Tuesday that the Russians had shifted their focus in Syria and have begun to attack IS locations – that same day Russian Cruise Missiles hit Raqqa – the IS headquarters. However this shift in policy has surprised many considering the recent past of Franco-Russian relations. Brigadier-General of the French air force, Jean-Vincent Brisset, complained that “There is a lack of consistency in French politics. We don’t know where it might go. France is now doing the reverse of what it did in the past.” There has been disagreement between France and Russia in the past particularly over the Ukraine conflict last year, leading to a refusal of sale of a €1.2 billion order by the Russians for French missiles. France also accused Russia this year of intervening to protect the Assad regime, targeting Syrian opposition groups instead of IS. France has changed its position since the deadliest attack on French territory since the Second World War. Hollande called last week for a large and single coalition of all who can really help fight the terrorist army. The French President will meet US President Barack Obama in Washington on Tuesday, before going on to meet Putin in Moscow later in the week.

CSU Leader Seehofer attacks Chancellor Merkel at party conference: Horst Seehofer, leader of the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria, the CSU and Bavarian Premier, has verbally attacked the German Chancellor and his partner in government, Angela Merkel, at the CSU party conference this weekend. The FAZ reported on Saturday that Seehofer justified his comments because of his personal disappointment in the Chancellor’s message at the party conference. Leading CDU politicians have nevertheless expressed outrage over his comments. Seehofer explained on Saturday that the Chancellor “did not make one single comment about reducing the flow of refugees into Germany”, a clear sign of a lack of understanding, despite knowing the position that the Bavarian Premier is in. Despite this he wished to emphasise that there was no break between him and the Chancellor, and that they simply have to work through their differences of position with further cooperation. The CSU’s General Secretary Andreas Scheuer told Bild on Sunday that there remains a strong sense of unity between the CSU & CDU, despite differences of opinion. CDU party members have reacted with a restrained outrage and calls for unity. CDU parliamentarian Wolfgang Bosbach told the FAS that it was clear some CSU members did not accept Chancellor Merkel’s stance on refugees easily in the face over persistent differences over policy. Over the issue of refugee policy, the Hessian Premier and CDU member Volker Bouffier said that “this historic challenge requires more cooperation and less conflict…however there’s no doubt that we must reduce the flow of refugees”. Further signs that support for Merkel’s policy in the party is gradually slipping away.

EU Council forced to step up speed to confront Terrorism threat: The EU Council meeting of Interior and Justice Ministers was overshadowed on Friday by the attacks in Mali, however still feeling the impact of the events in Paris on 13th November, the Council has now been forced to step up the pace in the fight against terrorism. The FAZ reported on Saturday that the meeting, a week after the attacks in Paris, was more of a show of solidarity than an actual attempt to refocus Europe’s response to terrorism. German Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière said that after the terrible attacks in Paris, the Council wanted to act “united, determined, hard and clear” in its response to terrorism in Europe. French Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said that “too much time had been lost” already, for them to act slowly in response. In fact there have been discussions on stepping up European counter-terrorism policies since the attacks in Paris in January, on the Jewish supermarket and the satire magazine – Charlie Hebdo. Now these policies have the political capital to be realised. Council President, te Luxembourger Etienne Schneider, said that the new decision made at the meeting on Friday was to accelerate the plans made in February. She also said that “we have rules and we need to apply them”. These include the Passenger Name Record directive – which would oblige airlines to “hand EU countries the data of passengers entering or leaving the EU” according to europarl.europa.eu. De Maizière in particular pushed for other moves, including closer cooperation between police and intelligence services, strengthening of the EU’s external borders and a joint crackdown on weapons smuggling. However to many commentators, this seems like weak sauce. Wolfgang Münchau, FT Journalist and Europe Correspondent, has called the chances of the EU fixing Schengen properly unlikely. More must be done that the measures agreed at the EU Council summit on Friday. The steps required are “economically efficient but… politically hard to do” These reforms – a common European border & coast guard, and common border agency, potential the beefing up of Frontex and a common counter-terrorism agency – have been called for by ALDE Group leader Guy Verhofstadt, however are unlikely to gain traction in the Council – the key body in the European legislature.

UK stance on Syrian air-strikes shifts in the wake of terror threats in Europe: In the wake of the IS-planned terror attacks in Paris last week, British Prime Minister David Cameron is now gearing up for a second attempt to take Britain into the conflict in Syria. Having sensed that the mood of MPs in the House has shifted since the attacks in Paris, Cameron is more confident of being able to win a majority of MPs. It is now believed that despite Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition, declaring he will not shift his stance on air-strikes in Syria, many of his MPs may defy him in voting for military action. David Cameron has announced that on Thursday he will make the case for Britain to attack IS in Syria, already doing so in Iraq. The Guardian reported that George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer, believes that bombing could start even before Christmas, considering the impact the attacks in Paris have made. This all comes following the unanimous support in the UN Security Council for the eradication of IS, following the events on 13th November. Cameron is set to travel to Paris on Monday to talk with French President François Hollande about the fight against IS. Osborne claimed on Sunday that he did not think the Prime Minister would call a vote without being sure the motion will pass. Despite this, Jeremy Corbyn and his allies remain on the side opposed to British intervention. Under mounting pressure to support giving a free vote to his party on the issue, the opposition leader said last week that a free vote is not something on offer. Despite this, 2 of Corbyn’s closest allies – John McDonnel Shadow Chancellor, and Diane Abbott, shadow secretary for international development – support a free vote. In support of the Prime Minister’s move, Chancellor Osborne said that “Britain is not a country that stands on the sidelines and lets others protect it”.

Macedonia introduces tighter controls on the Greek border: On Wednesday the Balkan nations of Serbia and Macedonia decided to limit the flow of people through the Western Balkans by restricting access to only those coming from Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan. Africans and those coming from parts of Asia further east would be denied entry. This came after a decision by Slovenia to begin denying entry to “economic migrants”. The FAZ reported on Sunday that this has led to around 6,000 people now stuck on the Greek-Macedonian border. Greece has now been left to deal with the problem. The majority of those rejected is purportedly made up of Iranians and Pakistanis. The BBC reported that the next group likely to be severely hit are the Eritreans, who after Syrians make up the second largest no. of people moving to Europe. Greece has already been struggling to cope with the record numbers of migrants making the crossing to its islands in the eastern Aegean, like Lesbos and Samos, which was further aggravated with the ferry service strike, which meant the halting of transportation from the eastern Greek islands to the Greek mainland. Macedonia has announced that like Slovenia, Bulgaria and Hungary, it has begun construction of a fence on its southern border. The Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov has said “it is not about closing the borders to Greece, but directing an ordered flow of refugees into Europe”.

Sources: FT, FAZ, France 24, AFP, BBC, Reuters, Bild, The Guardian