Thomas de Maizière, German Minister of the Interior, has widened the split in the German establishment over refugees by declaring on Sunday a harshening of German policy towards migrants & refugees coming into the country. He has declared Germany will not allow people to remain in the country purely because they have family there, and has called for a return to the Dublin Convention, which declares that asylum seekers must register themselves and claim asylum in their country of origin; they will otherwise be returned to that country. De Maizière has supporters from both his party, most significantly Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, as well as CSU (Bavarian version of the party) leader and Bavarian Premier, Horst Seehofer. Meanwhile the Chancellery has the support of Sigmar Gabriel, leader of the SPD, Merkel’s coalition partners, and his party.

This really is a tight spot for Merkel, as she is clearly having to rely on her coalition partners, and not the members of her own party. In political terms this is a sheer disaster for her policy, and people know it. Across Europe, the policy of the European People’s Party – the party of Angela Merkel’s CDU & Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker – has been facing barriers, with the migrant relocation scheme gaining little ground among member-states (particularly in the east) and their overtures towards African nations and Turkey looking rather desperate. The fact of the matter is the longer this issue continues, the more support Merkel loses. On Thursday last week, transit zones and an overall tightening on border controls was considered as Seehofer demanded a change of course by the German government, however as negotiation between the two sides of the German establishment looked promising, with Merkel completely rejecting the scheme that same day, calling the measures “un-European”. To me they seem very European, considering the fortress Europe that has been constructed since the Schengen Convention came into force and the Yugoslav Wars, as well as the venom-filled response that Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his allies in the eastern ‘Visegrad Bloc’, who utterly oppose the Commission’s migrant relocation scheme.

The fact that splits have been appearing since late October, when Seehofer and the CSU first started publicly criticising the Chancellor’s position on the crisis shows that Merkel is on the losing side of this debate. Now with two major figures in her own party opposing her – the Interior and Finance Ministers – her position among the party faithful is looking even worse. Many CDU parliamentarians have come out against the Chancellor, with them standing behind de Maizière’s policies, others calling for a smaller status for Syrians in Germany and others calling for a reduction on state-support for Syrians who have gone to Germany not directly because of the civil war. However in a display of utter weakness, de Maizière declared the change in German policy on migration without informing the Chancellery, in complete defiance of her leadership. This is the major issue that triggered the crisis, and I think is going to be the main factor that leaves Merkel utterly out-manoeuvred on what policy the German government takes. Ultimately, with failing support from the CSU & CDU, reliance on the SPD is going to lead to her losing the confidence of her party, the Bundestag perhaps and probably a complete split in the coalition, which she cannot afford. Leaving the SPD as the only refugee party in Germany, as the FAZ put it on Wednesday, will be bad in the long term but should suffice to keep the SPD in the coalition.

The fact is that Merkel is losing more and more ground; despite having a lot of support from the people, unless something changes in the next year, she is not going to have popular support going forward and will have lost. It was expected and accepted at the beginning of the year that there was likely going to be a third Merkel attempt at the Chancellery, however after a difficult summer of crises, the current one clearly separating her from her party, it seems unlikely at best, and a fantasy at worst. For her to gain any chance of reconciliation with the rest of the country and her party, she will have to negotiate her previously non-negotiable point of open borders, which she has defended up until now absolutely. However, de Maizière has also begun to defend his actions in declaring a change of course on migrant policy, and this time I doubt the people will recognise her stand as one of strength. The split in Germany’s oldest political marriage has become a split in one of Germany’s oldest political parties, and that will not end well when Merkel is on the losing side. Considering that her own party in the European Parliament – the EPP – has also distanced itself from the perfectly open border policy, her support across the continent is waning to quickly to lead to a perfect outcome for her.

Considering her announcement on Monday, saying “Refugees securing asylum in Germany should expect long delays before they can bring over their families”, it may be a sign that she’s realised she’s lost the argument in her home country. Statements from Manfred Weber – CSU member and leader of the EPP Group in the European Parliament – including the support of Orbán criticism of migrants’ behaviour regarding cooperation with immigration authorities in Hungary, show that the EPP are not entirely behind her either. That means, Merkel has lost the debate entirely. It’s now about damage control, and the longer it takes, the worse the damage to the political capital she has built up in Europe and Germany as the world’s most powerful woman will be. This is Merkel’s last stand as Chancellor, as after this affair is over in her home country – which will be long after the end of her term in 2017 – Germany will have lost it’s trust in it’s Chancellor, and she’ll never be able to take an anti-popular line in her party again.

Sources: FAZ, DPA, Reuters, FT, The Budapest Beacon