Monday 30th November 2015

Weekend updates of European news, including developments in the British renegotiations, developments in Syria, demonstrators protest the COP-21 summit, and a new chapter in Turkish-EU relations.

Cameron gives up on an early conclusion to negotiations: British Prime Minister David Cameron has accepted that the likelihood is, Britain’s renegotiations will not be concluded at the December summit of the European Council, considering the other priorities on the agenda, including terrorism and the refugee crisis. Although the Prime Minister still intends to hold substantive talks in December, he has conceded that there will be other things at the top of the agenda. Instead, the focus of British officials negotiating in Brussels has shifted to a summit in February, which would still leave Cameron with the option of holding the referendum in June next year. Cameron held discussions with European Council President Donald Tusk at the EU-Turkey summit on Sunday, in order to run through the progress of the renegotiations. The two major hurdles that still exist in the negotiations are the question of EU-citizens’ entitlement to welfare, and safeguarding the rights on non-Eurozone nations in the Union. Cameron admitted last week after a meeting in Vienna with Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann, that some parts of his negotiation were proving “easier to fix than others”. One British official admitted that December was always an optimistic outcome, and actually suggested that delaying things until next year could actually prove positive. There is still however no common consensus on the issue of EU-citizen entitlement to welfare. Furthermore, France and Germany have expressed fears over the British proposal to provide guarantees that eurozone countries won’t rig the single market against non-euro countries. Mark Rutte, Dutch Prime Minister, has said that the provision of guarantees of the issue could make reaching a deal impossible in the near future. The Dutch vote will be important considering the Netherlands take over the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency in January.

French Foreign Minister expands anti-IS coalition: French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius expressed on Friday for the potential of working with forces loyal to the regime, but only in “the framework of a political transition without the Syrian President”. France 24 reported that Fabius said “Troops on the ground cannot be ours, but Syrian soldiers from the Free Syrian Army, Sunni Arab states, and why not regime troops”. Despite this, a French government official has since followed the statement up with another saying that the Foreign Minister was reiterating France’s long-standing position that there can be no inclusion of the current government under Bashar-al Assad in the peace process and rebuilding of Syria. The official made clear that working with the Syrian Army could only take place “in the framework of a political transition”, which is urgent and indispensable. The comments come in the wake of further rapprochement between the French and Russian governments, especially over the subject of Syria – French President François Hollande met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday in a meeting where they agreed to coordinate strikes on IS territory. A further breakthrough was Russia’s commitment not to bomb anti-regime forces. Putin had requested that France provide Russia with maps detailing the locations of troops fighting IS, so that Russia could ensure not to attack them. Despite the signs of reconciliation, the fact is that Russia and the west are still not in agreement over the place of Syrian dictator Assad in the rebuilding of Syria. Fabius said that “Assad cannot be the future of his people”.

Protest marches call for action at Paris climate summit: Tens of thousands took to the streets on Sunday to demand bold measures to be agreed upon at the climate summit taking place in Paris in order to combat climate change. Under the State of Emergency, the French government has used its power to ban the protests from the French capital. Instead of marching, demonstrators in Paris created a 2km long human chain, reported France 24, and covered the Place de la République with thousands of shoes. Elsewhere in the world, demonstrators protested to put pressure on the 12-day marathon of diplomacy that involves 195 countries. Demonstrations took place in London, Freiburg, Sydney, New Delhi, Tokyo, Johannesburg, Seoul, Oslo & Hong Kong to name a few locations. Summits like this rarely produce real results, however we can all simply live in hope that this time it is different and world leaders take concrete steps towards tackling a threat to all humanity.

Germany plans to send forces to the Middle East: Germany has set in motion plans to deploy troops of the Bundeswehr to the Middle East in response to French President François Hollande’s call to arms to aid the republic in the fight against IS, in response the attacks in Paris on 13th November. The FAZ reported on Saturday that the Federal government aims to broaden Germany’s role in the fight against IS in the Middle East. It is reported that the Bundeswehr intends to deploy reconnaissance aircraft, fighters, a Navy warship totalling around 1,200 personnel to the Middle East to work in conjunction with the existing coalition in the region. The FT reported the fact that this is unusual for Germany considering that deployment of soldiers is usually in either a peacekeeping capacity or for training. The move requires parliamentary approval from the Bundestag, and has not yet been put to a vote. Despite France’s call to arms however, technically the latest resolution from the UN Security Council does not fulfil the required criteria for a UN Mandate to wage war against IS in Iraq and Syria. Furthermore, beyond parliamentary approval, the Bundeswehr has very strict rules constitutionally on how it can operate, and so far, none of the necessary criteria have been satisfied. Defence is possible, however whether the situation with IS equals an attack on Germany which must be defended against is also unclear yet. Volker Wieker however, General Inspector of the Bundeswehr, seems to think that deployment is legal and will take place once parliamentary approval has been secured. Active contribution of Germany to the conflict in Syria demonstrates the real threat western governments are feeling from IS, since the attacks a fortnight ago.

Turkey and the EU conclude deal on refugees: On Sunday, Turkey and the EU concluded an agreement in which Turkey will support the EU in limiting the number of refugees and migrants who make it to Europe’s shores. Turkey have in return been given expanded visa privileges, €3bn in financial aid, and a fresh round of EU membership talks. This represents a step for Europe towards a more controlled policy of border control and migration into Europe. Donald Tusk, European Council President, said that the deal represents “a clear plan for the timely re-establishment of order at our shared frontier”. The €3bn will be used to improve living conditions for refugees currently in Syria. Turkey will also provide more work possibilities for the 2.2 million refugees already in the country and will be taking back some refugees who crossed the border. There is also the plan for Turkey to crack down on people smuggling, directly attempting to reduce the flow of people into Bulgaria and Greece. On the other side of the equation is the proposal to resettle Syrian refugees in Turkey, in a voluntary scheme. The scheme would be tied to the €3bn; those who don’t take part may find themselves having to contribute more to the aid fund. Furthermore, visa controls for Turkish citizens visiting the EU will be relaxed by October 2016. Despite this new stage in Turkey-EU relations, the summit talks ignored the fact that Turkey has been moving ever further towards an authoritarian regime under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the talks come only days after the arrest of 2 Turkish journalists by the government. Chancellor Merkel, also present at the summit, held talks with other European leaders in order to introduce quotas for refugees coming into Europe.

Spanish protest against military intervention in the Middle East: On Saturday thousands of Spanish people took to the streets of Madrid to protest against military intervention, as the rising tide of enthusiasm for intervention threatens to engulf the EU in the wake of the attacks in Paris. The protesters campaigned that IS can be defeated without bombs, as well as against Islamophobia and terrorism. On the placards, the demonstrators’ slogans read “No en nuestro nombre” (not in our names); terrorist attacks do not permit military intervention. The protest was called for by several parties of the Spanish left, Muslim communities, victim associations, as well as the Mayors of Barcelona and Madrid. Teresa Rodriguez, a member of the leftist party Podemos,  said on the subject of intervention “the reduction of our freedoms, our civil rights, as well as a bombing which will cause the suffering of the civilian population, cannot be the solution in the fight against islamist terrorism”. Union leaders, well-known actors, writers, and representatives from terrorist-victims’ associations took part in the march. In the past few weeks a petition against an international coalition has received 30,000 signatures. Spain’s involvement in the war against IS will be decided after the parliamentary elections on the 20th December.

Sources: FT, FAZ, France 24, AFP, DPA