Marine Le Pen’s Front National (FN) swept to a clear victory in the regional elections at the weekend in France, winning 29% of the vote, gaining a greater share than both the Centre-right Les Republicains (LR) of Nicolas Sarkozy, and President François Hollande’s Parti Socialiste (PS). The elections are not over yet however, with the second round of voting taking place next weekend, but this is a clear sign to everyone in French and European politics that the shift to the extremes of the political spectrum has now spread definitively to one of the largest nations in Europe, and one of the EU’s founding states.

To say this is a trend spreading across Europe would be nothing new. However what I will say is that there has been a shift, which has been developing over time, from the traditional right-left political spectrum, to a spectrum which separates the establishment parties (it’s worth bearing in mind too that in Europe, most establishment parties are centrist moderates) from those who attack the establishment which doesn’t seem to work for the people anymore – the populists. It was heard a lot in the British general elections this year – “they’re all the same”, “they don’t want change” “they’re a part of the political club”. The fact is, the voice which resonated as different, regardless of whether that’s true or not, was the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). In Scotland, they also had the Scottish National Party (SNP), which saw a resounding victory, winning all but 3 seats. This was not the first shift in politics this year, but a further sign that it is in 2015, that the floodgates have opened to what a now tired and downtrodden populace will elect if the mainstream parties are not listening to their demands.

Syriza was the first in January – the Greek elections sending a shock-wave across the southern nations of Europe as a sign of what was potentially to come, if they did not deliver to their electorates. Podemos’ rise is still feared in the Spanish elections this month. In Italy, we see the growing emergence of the far-left Movimento Cinque Stelle (M5S), and even in Portugal, the Partido Socialista (PS) seems prepared also to take steps against the work of austerity brought about under the previous government. Those who are familiar will notice these are all leftist populists – the Yanis Varoufakises of Europe, although as I’ve said, this may not be so important in the current climate. In the north of Europe, the right-wing populists are on the rise for the same reason – the people have had enough of the establishment. In Poland we have the recent victory of  Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS), a total shift to the right which the FT wrote on Tuesday could endanger democracy in Poland, not least demonstrated by PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczyński’s admiration of the authoritarian Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán. In France on Sunday, we have the stunning vote share won by the extreme right-wing Front National, who until a few years ago were not only xenophobic but anti-Semitic. In Britain there’s the rise of UKIP, who are known in Britain for quotes such as “Belgium is pretty much a non-country” (Nigel Farage) “Bongo-Bongo land” (Godfrey Bloom) and suggestions that the bad weather a few years ago in the UK was because gay marriage had been legalised (some UKIP councillor that on one has ever heard of). The only development running counter to this in northern Europe is the rise of the SNP in Scotland, the left-wing anti-British establishment party, that swept to victory in Scotland in May, becoming the third largest party in British politics. 

As a side note, in the European Parliament, you’d be right to point out in the recent elections last year, the establishment party of establishment parties (literally), the EPP, came out with the largest vote-share, with almost 300 seats. However it’s worth making the point that really, it’s only the establishment that’s concerned with European elections currently.

How Britain is different, or should I say, England

The Scottish National Party (SNP) in Scotland is the closest British equivalent to this trend taking place in Europe. The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), despite being populist in its rhetoric and supposedly a Britain-wide party, its support and ideas are clearly English. Furthermore, its success was not seen in the British general elections this year, and I think that’s because the English are inclined in times of crisis to shift to the status-quo, to the established party which they think they can rely on – more often than not, the Conservatives. Of course, the British system is inherently weighted in favour of larger, established parties, however the Scottish Nationals still managed to gain a huge amount of support on their anti-establishment party platform. UKIP, whilst gaining more in fact that the SNP, gained a smaller percentage of English votes, in comparison to the population. The party system influences this but so does the English mindset, something which inclines them towards the establishment. This has a positive impact as well as negative, but most importantly, it does not encourage change. Britain’s political system has never seen a radical overhaul like other European nations have, it’s been a series of changes through Acts and legislature that has made it an evolution; Britain has never seen a true revolution. The English Civil War is the only potential candidate and even then Britain reverted to the status quo after a short interlude. The fact is that there is a difference in this regard between the continental powers and Britain, and when I say Britain, I really mean England.

The problem with the establishment

Anyway, as is slowly being grasped by the more centrist, establishment parties, they are going to actually have to confront this threat posed by the extreme left and right, who like all extremists are winning based more on their criticisms of the establishment, and promises of ‘real’ change, rather than their actual policies. The establishment-populist split is really most clearly shown by suggestions in France that the two establishment parties should work together to hold off FN. This is the level of separation felt by those in the establishment now; they must protect themselves at all costs from anything ‘alien’; ironic really, considering FN’s beliefs.

Now it’s worth me mentioning that I am not opposed to these parties rising in significance, at least to some degree, as they prompt establishment parties towards genuine change. On the other hand, the kind of change being demand varies across Europe, particularly along a north-south divide which has been featuring in ever more European political discussions. In the south, the change that is being encouraged is not bad, at least in most cases. Mainly focussed on anti-austerity, hopefully the rise of such movements will effectively challenge the German-dominated economic policy of Europe. German politicians, particularly those like Wolfgang Schäuble who think Europe will stand behind German leadership when they demand solidarity and give little back, have to realise that the southern states will not sit back and accept this forever. Schäuble considered kicking Greece out of the Eurozone this summer. However the fact is talk like that, and his recent outburst against a common deposit insurance plan, could lead to those southern states freely abandoning the single currency, and he’ll have no one left to bully.

Wolfgang Münchau wrote in the FT in July that although people like Schäuble like to talk tough when it comes to EU rules and treaties, they are willing to even make up rules when it suits them e.g. the no default rule used by Schäuble himself in the summer. This is not a discussion about European rules, however if Germany keeps going on like this, the anti-establishment parties will never give in, never disappear, and always have reason to say the establishment parties aren’t willing or able to make the changes necessary.

And this is at the centre of the debate over establishment; it’s about those parties who are in, have been in and thus have experience of power no longer using it for the people. It’s an age-old problem, however the lingering question is: do they really not want to, or can they not? Do they not have the will-power to encourage that kind of discussion and debate in their countries? Because, and this point was emphasised by Jürgen Habermas in The Lure of Technocracy, political discussion and the public sphere is about more than pandering to the voters, but critically about forming opinions. And here’s where the establishment now lets us all down. When you’re in power, it’s very easy to say “sure, this needs to be dealt with, but I’ll leave it to the next guy”. There might be little difference to some people about whether this is basically the same as saying you don’t want to change the system, but the fact is, if fear of right-wing populist backlashes can be overcome, the political parties can take part in the political discussion and influence opinions, not merely adopt them, or ignore them. I think this fear does not exist in the same way south as it does in the north. In the north, the centre-left parties are increasingly under pressure from the populist right, for fear of losing their voters. Jeremy Corbyn is both an example and exception. In England he’s widely viewed as a radical of sorts, but many in other parts of Europe wonder why we think he’s such a crazy leftist when his policies seem fairly acceptable for debate where they come from. I think the reason he’s thought of as a radical here, is because when people look at him, they do see something different, they do see change. That’s the definition of a radical (in Britain at least). Someone who you believe will actually bring about change.

What is certain is that despite Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s cries that Europe needs reform, or German Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel warning that this is a wake up call, the fact is, these politicians need to actually deliver, and not even in Europe, just in their own countries. Otherwise they will be overwhelmed by the populists. Even in the south, the rise of the populism of the left needs to be confronted. Not in a dismissive way, but in a way that allows those demands to be satisfied, without risking these movements falling into more extremist hands. I might go as unpopular when I say that I believe that moderate, centrist parties can bring about change. I don’t believe revolution is necessary to change the system. Voices of the anti-establishment on the other hand certainly are, and it is only democratic that these parties get to rule when the moderates fail. However, to echo Gabriel, the rise of FN, PiS in Poland, and however well Podemos do this month, should be an enormous wake up call to democrats. They need to start responding to the voters, before the voters lose hope entirely that moderates want and can make change.

Sources: FT, Habermas