Hi all, just a few updates this week on different electoral news from across Europe:

• The aftermath of Front National’s defeat in France
• Resurgence of Merkel support in the CDU
• Mariano Rajoy on the campaign trail

Front National after the regional elections

Those who read this blog as well as others will know that despite the appearance of a sweeping victory for Front National in the first round of regional elections in France, they failed miserably in the second round last Sunday (and might I add, to the relief of many). However a report from the FT on Wednesday seems to think we’re not out of the woods yet on the issue. The major points that whilst Le Pen suffered a set back over the weekend, this cannot be seen as defeat – her vote in fact grew by 800,000 to almost 7 million voters on Sunday. To say her party is unpopular would be a complete an utter lie. It’s reminiscent of the UK general elections in May, where the UK Independence Party managed to win 4 million votes, and only won a single seat in Parliament, not to mention the fact that the SNP claimed all but 3 seats in Scotland, despite winning a smaller share of the votes. The fact is, strangely, some might think, poor election results cannot mask the fact that the far right, and populism in general, is rising across Europe – one election defeat does not mean the threat is gone for good. France in particular has the coming Presidential elections in 2017 to fear, in which Le Pen looks likely to do well in at least the first round. According to the FT, this means of course that the moderate centrists of the establishment are going to have to do a lot more to in France’s case halt the rise of FN, and in other parts of Europe counter their populist movements. And this means going beyond cooperating to shift more of the moderate vote to one candidate by withdrawing your own. It means genuine attempts to connect again with electorates, and provide something beyond repeated talking points, but forming policies to deal with issues, bold reforms which will tackle lingering problems from days gone by. I said it last week; politicians cannot simply look on at problems and hope their successors have more enthusiasm for dealing with it – they need to tackle them themselves. France’s major issue is the current state of her economy. This has to be something that both Sarkozy and Hollande need to be willing and prepared to confront in 2017.

Merkel sees resurgence of support at Monday’s party conference

As if the drama in the halls of power in Berlin could not get any more intense, Monday showed the whole of the CDU and the world that Merkel still exercises the backing of much of her party. The FAZ was reporting this weekend that this could be the first real threat to Merkel’s leadership of the party, and Chancellorship, considering that CDU parliamentarians will be able to vote on whether or not they support Merkel’s policy of open borders. A ‘no’ vote could trigger the final collapse of a crumbling support base, as Merkel has gone from looking at a clear re-election as Chancellor in 2017 with the popular support of the nation, to being criticised across the party, nation and by members of her own cabinet and her allies – Thomas de Maizière, Horst Seehofer, Wolfgang Schäuble. And yet, as support has been slowly but surely fading, this all seems to shift on Monday as Merkel seemed to be facing her darkest hour – will her party, now given the choice, decide to support her. According to one FT report, yes they did. Despite a few right-wing dissenters who still backed a tougher line on refugees, Merkel won a 9 minute standing ovation from CDU parliamentarians, after a speaking at the annual party conference in Karlsruhe. Merkel has toned down some of her rhetoric, conceding that the flow of refugees into Europe has to be slowed. However the overall policy of open borders whilst refugees are still arriving will not be changed. Further analysis seems to suggest that the present CDU delegates were more concerned with supporting Merkel, regardless of her rhetoric, than the exact position itself. From that, it seems that instead of this being a reawakening, we’re looking more at a short-term bolstering of defences in the face of the coming trials. Merkel hasn’t lost any more support, but gaining it again is going to take a long time. Commentators since the refugee crisis has worsened over the past few months have become less and less enthusiastic about Merkel’s chances in the German elections in 2017. Me personally? I don’t think that she has the political capital to go further; the fact is that Merkel’s success has relied on the constant building up of support through constant positive news in Germany; now that the bad news has hit Germany itself, Germans are more sceptical of their Chancellor. If things don’t change soon – either the situation itself, or her policy, then I doubt Merkel will last to see another term in office.

Coming Spanish elections sees PM Rajoy play the election game

Unlike the past two stories, Spain is seeing a general election this year, and thus, having come through the worst of the Eurozone and financial crises, Spaniards are having to consider whether Mariano Rajoy and his Partido Popular rescued the Spanish and are worth voting in for another term. In fact, despite scares after Syriza’s victory at the beginning of the year, it appears that the PP’s economic management has been acceptable for the Spanish people, and seem interested in trusting them with another term. People can already see parallels with the British elections in May (although, the British people were less confident about the conservative party until the very last second), and the complete opposite of the situation France is currently in. I think it’s clear that the economy is where elections are really made or broken, although the age old qualification has to be made in that it really relies on the voters perception of economic performance. A clear difference however between the British and Spanish examples is that contrary to what some leftists believe, Prime Minister Cameron is not the least liked head of government in Britain’s modern history. Prime Minister Rajoy does hold that esteemed title, and beforehand he found himself in the slightly less illustrious position of least liked opposition leader. It seems to go further than that though; only 3/10 Spaniards approve of Rajoy and a measly 1/10 believe he is the best available leader for Spain. This seems on contrast with my earlier point however, so what’s going on here? An FT article on the subject argues that perhaps Spaniards still have faith in their old political order, and that a victory for Spain here will demonstrate a victory for European moderation and centrist politics. However, you’ve got to consider that the PP’s success will be far worse than the 2011 elections, and that the voting turn out will be smaller as well. Nevertheless, I think that this does represent a loyalty of Spaniards to the established political order, similar to the results of the French elections last Sunday. People are not happy with the moderate parties, especially in the southern periphery of Europe, and France. And yet still there is a larger number of people who are more willing to see those unpopular parties and leaders voted back in, than see some form of populism or radicalism get into power. In Spain, the main populist party is Podemos. People get angry, and these parties get votes. But that does not mean people have lost faith entirely with the moderate centre. FN voters in France after the first round of votes told journalists and pollsters that their vote was more based on punishing President Hollande than genuine support for the political programme of Marine Le Pen. The same would likely be true in Spain, and would have been in Britain, were decent results not beginning to creep through into the public consciousness by the time of the elections. Make no mistake, democracies need a change in the parties that lead them. But mistakenly voting radicals in out of protest is not the right path either – the mistake has been made before. At the same time, democrats have to look at the developments across Europe, and respond to the genuine concerns that are at the heart of populism.