Monday 14th December 2015

Weekend updates on European news, including proposal by the Commission for EU border force, the final outcome of the French elections, German party conferences, and developments in Prime Minister Cameron’s EU negotiations

European Commission proposes creation of border force for the Union: The European Commission has proposed the creation of a European border and coast guard, which would patrol and protect the external frontiers of the EU. According to the FT, this would represent the largest transfer of sovereignty to the European level since the creation of the single currency. The Commission has announced the unveiling of plans next week for the creation of a proper European border force to replace Frontex, in response to the 1.2 million migrants that have crossed the EU’s external borders since January. The plans will be unveiled just 2 days before the December European Council meeting of EU Heads of State. The Warsaw based agency Frontex has had a mandate since 2004 only to ‘coordinate’ EU border agencies against illegal border crossings, by exchanging information. It does not have the capabilities to actually man and patrol the EU external border, despite being given more and more responsibilities as the refugee crisis has developed. Over the past year both Paris and Berlin have called for a common border agency, and this call has been echoed by parliamentarians in the European Parliament. Loss of sovereignty here is a big issue however, as shown by the months of negotiating that have only just led to Greece allowing European support for their beleaguered border forces. Regulations and mechanisms will be decided jointly by the Council and the Parliament, and it is hoped to be concluded under the Dutch presidency which begins in January. 2 other initiatives are planned to be announced on Tuesday; already discussed amendments to the Schengen Convention which will require EU citizens to be also checked at the external borders, as well as a single European rule for refugees. The powers this new force will have include an expanded staff, the ability to employ its own border guards and buy its own equipment, call upon a reserve force of border guards from the member-states, and step in on external borders if it feels nation-states are under-performing or overwhelmed. Day-to-day running of the border will be left to member-states however.

Front National fail to make gains in French regional elections: In spite of the huge gains and positive signals for Front National (FN) last Sunday in the first round of regional elections in France, in the second round this Sunday, FN failed to win a single region. Instead, Sarkozy’s centre-right Les Republicains (LR) won 7 regions, and President François Hollande’s Parti Socialiste (PS) gained a mere 5. Front National leader Marine Le Pen hoped to make history and solidify her place on the French political stage by winning control of at least 1 of France’s 13 regions on Sunday. This seemed like it would be the case after last weekend gaining the largest share with 28% of the vote. However this did not transpire, as voters rallied to the other more moderate parties. FN had been riding the wave of the current refugee crisis, which had translated into first-place position in 6 of France’s regions in the first round last week. However none of these became victories this Sunday. France 24 reported that in the 3 key regions where FN support was greatest last week – Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie, Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur and Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardenne, Le Pen suffered defeats. In the first 2 of those regions, PS pulled there candidates from the region, hoping to unify the moderate vote under Sarkozy’s LR. Le Pen suffered a particularly stinging defeat in her region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie, where she lost 42-57% against the LR candidate Xavier Bertrand. Her nience Marion Le Pen also lost in the southern region of Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur, also against the LR candidate and Nice Mayor, Christian Estrosi. And despite the PS candidate in Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardenne defying party orders to step out of the race, the LR won through gaining 48.4% of the vote. Despite this dismal failure of an election, Le Pen stuck behind her previous statement that “FN is the first party of France” and that nothing will halt the rise of the French nationalist movement. FN has won local elections over the past few years, but victory in a region would have solidified their place in French mainstream politics. On Sunday, France 24 reported that despite a clear LR victory, it would not have been so clear without tactical voting by usually PS voters. This was acknowledged by Xavier Bertrand in his victory speech. Critically however, Les Repulicains won the capital region, Ile-de-France, which is also France’s most populace region. Nicolas Sarkozy, current leader of LR, has hoped that victory here will validate his leadership, especially for the coming presidential election in 2017, however this is not necessarily set in stone yet. The PS meanwhile called the election a “success without joy”, considering before they held all but 1 region, and the fact that the Paris terror attack in November played into the hands of the extremist-right. Manuel Valls, French Prime Minister, hailed FN’s defeat, but warned that “The danger of the far right remains”.

Neo-Nazi rally in  Leipzig turns violent: Demonstrators clashed with police at a neo-Nazi rally in Leipzig on Saturday, which left 40 police officers injured. According to the police, a group of 1,000 demonstrators attacked the police, throwing stones, bottles and fireworks, were clad in black and wearing balaclavas. This was in retaliation to the presence of several left-wing counter-demonstrators denouncing the rally. The police used water cannon and tear gas on the rioters and several people were later taken into custody. Originally the demonstrators wanted the march through the left-wing district of Connewitz, however this was rejected by the authorities as an alternative Christmas market and Christmas concert were taking place there. According to police reports, bins were set on fire, a bus stop was damaged and even fire fighters were attacked. According to the FAZ, there was a threatening atmosphere and high potential for violence that afternoon in the Leipzig district of Südvorstadt, where the riots took place. This had calmed down by evening however. Police were reinforced by contingents from other federal states. SPD Mayor Burkhard Jung called the violence shocking, calling the riots “street terror” and saying that they undermined the important, peaceful counter-demonstration against neo-Nazis. Later in the early hours of the morning, unknown perpetrators started fires in Südvorstadt & Connewitz, burning car tyres and rubbish containers. Roadblocks and checkpoints had been further expanded by early evening on Sunday.

Cameron signals willingness to compromise over migration curb plans: After British Prime Minister David Cameron’s demand for a 4-year ban on in-work benefits for EU residents of the UK hit a wall of resistance in Europe, Cameron has shown signals of a potential compromise being acceptable. According to Downing Street, Cameron is still fighting for his proposal, however is open to alternative ideas which achieve the same end of reducing European migration to Britain. This new-found flexibility is the response to the alarm and fierce resistance from the EU, and especially Poland, towards the demand, as well as Cameron’s demand for a deal to be made in December. Cameron has claimed he was testing the waters for the deal and keeping the negotiations alive. However warnings from German Chancellor Angela Merkel that a deal would not be possible in December, and Prime Minister of Poland Beata Szydło that discriminatory changes to the Freedom of Movement were unacceptable, are more likely the causes for the shift in stance. Polish officials said that Cameron’s attempt to convince them to back his demand in Warsaw on Thursday were half-hearted, according to the FT. However Cameron also told Szydlo at the meeting that unless an alternative suggestion was made, Britain would vote to leave the Union and Polish residents’ right to work and live in the UK would be void in any case. Cameron will push this week at the European Council meeting for an alternative to be suggested and agreed upon in time for the February meeting next year. Suggestions by Poland and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte have been that Britain should reform its own benefit system, which would reduce the lure of European migrants. Brussels has suggested an emergency brake to halt migration into Britain for a certain period in times of overwhelming of British public services. A final suggestion has been that migrants remain under the social welfare regime of their origin country for a certain period of time – though not 4 years.

COP21 climate agreement signed in Paris: a historic deal was signed by 190 countries in Paris on Saturday – the first legally binding accord to fight against climate change. The long-term goal agreed was that temperature rises remain well below 2 degrees Celsius, with a target being 1.5 degrees at maximum. According to France 24, temperatures have risen by 1 degree already since the pre-industrial era. To meet the target, governments have pledged to halt the rise of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. The aim is to reduce the emissions by 2050 to a level which can be absorbed by the forests and oceans. Countries have been set 5-year long emissions targets to meet, and 180 countries have already submitted their targets for the first cycle, which will begin in 2020. Developed countries must cut their emissions in absolute terms, whereas developing countries have been encouraged to do so, with the emphasis being increased as their capabilities develop over time. For now, they must keep their emissions growth low in relation to economic growth. At current speeds the current targets will not be enough however, so over the next 4 years, countries have been asked to see if their can review their targets and update them. The hope is that with developing new green technologies, this will become possible. There are no penalties for missing targets, however there will be transparency to help push governments towards meeting their targets. China was a major obstacle in this area, according to France 24. Furthermore, the agreement states that wealthy nations should continue to provide financial support to poorer countries and help them combat climate change; though no figure was stipulated, countries had agreed that $100bn was to be provided annually.

German party conferences throw up challenges for coalition leaders: Both major parties of the ruling coalition in Germany, the CDU and the SPD, are in party conference season, and both face difficult challenges to their leadership. Sigmar Gabriel, Vice-Chancellor and leader of the SPD, faced his re-election this weekend, in which he gained a poor vote share of only 74.3%, down from 83.6% in 2013. This was the worst result of his leadership of the party. Other SPD parliamentarians and delegates, as well as grassroots members are finding the SPD’s current course not far enough to the left; specific grumbles include date-retention of citizens, the Bundeswehr intervention in Syria and the free-trade agreement TTIP. The poor vote it is believed is a response to these grumbles. Gabriel’s positions include supporting a reduction in the volume of refugees entering the country, and supporting free-trade with America. Despite the resulting poor result, the FAZ reported that Gabriel is satisfied with the support of only 3/4 of the party. Considering many commentators believed the dip in support would be much greater, many believe now that in fact, Gabriel’s position is strengthened, evidenced in the party’s overall approval on Saturday for their leader’s position on TTIP. Meanwhile, Angela Merkel is facing her own problems, gearing up for the CDU party conference in Karlsruhe on Monday. In what could invoke memories of the moment in Munich, when she was humiliated and her policies denounced by CSU leader Horst Seehofer, again she must take to the stage and face potential attack on her political carrier. In Munich, her place as the undisputed leader of the Union disappeared. According to one FAZ journalist, it now comes to the basis of her power, as delegates themselves will be able to express their rejection of Merkel’s policy for the first time since the start of the refugee crisis. Her only saving grace is that there’s no re-election for party-leader this time; nevertheless, a voting down by delegates of her refugee policy will call much more into question – her role as party leader and even her role as Chancellor.

Sources: FT, FAZ, France 24, AFP, DPA, AP