With the announcement of Emmanuel Macron, the French Economy Minister, on Thursday, a major foreign power has waded into the current debate over Brexit, with an enormous warning for Britain. According to the French Minister, should Britain leave the EU, it will find the migrants and refugees currently on the French side of the border, at Calais, making their way to Dover as the current border arrangements between the French and British governments are ripped up. Furthermore, Monsieur Macron also said that with Britain’s exit, France would “lay out the red carpet” for financiers leaving the City of London, looking for a location with access to the continent.

The FT reported the Minister’s statement in an interview published on Thursday, with such incendiary remarks as ‘the scuppering of the Le Touquet agreement’, which allows British border checks to be held on French soil, and our ‘bilateral relationship could change abruptly’ in the event of a Brexit. The minister summed up his warning as “The day this relationship unravels, migrants will no longer be in Calais and the financial passport would work less well”. Currently, opinions in France over the large migrant camps near Calais and Dunkerque are incredibly negative, and the FT reported on Thursday that there would be considerable support for the French government to end the bilateral agreement. Despite the agreement not having a direct link to the EU, the FT said that the French government would have a difficult time justifying a special border agreement with a non-EU country. Furthermore, Front National, and their leader Marine Le Pen, who is currently leading in the polls for the 2017 presidential elections, have called for the ending of the agreement as well. Recently elected President of the Nord-pas-de-Calais-Picardie region, Xavier Betrand of Les Republicains, said that he also supported the end of the agreement, should Britain leave the EU.

David Cameron had previously also made this claim that the French would not stop those currently in Calais coming to Britain, should a Brexit occur. Earlier in February this year, the British Prime Minister said “You have potentially thousands of asylum seekers camped out in Northern France who could be here almost over night.” There are currently 5,000 people camped in northern France near Calais and Dunkerque. Vote Leave and other supporters of Brexit have dismissed both the Prime Minister and French Minister Macron’s claim that a Brexit would lead to a break-down in border relations, calling the statements “fear-mongering”. There are furthermore reasons why the French government would not be willing to unilaterally end the Anglo-French border arrangements. Allowing refugees direct access to the UK may encourage more people arriving in Italy and Greece to migrate north through France on their way to Britain, in a similar situation to Austria and Germany. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem likely the French would practically put people on cross-channel ferries and euro-tunnel trains to Britain.

France and Britain held their 34th annual summit in Amiens on Thursday, reported France 24, at which the British Prime Minister, the French President and the Interior, Foreign and Defence Ministers of both nations met to discuss ongoing bilateral events and developments. At the top of the agenda was the Brexit referendum, as well as joint-defence plans and the situation in Calais. Les Echos reported that an extra €22 million was promised by Britain to help with the situation in Calais. Also at the summit, President François Hollande said that there would be consequences from a Brexit – “not to fear-monger, but we have to speak the truth”. Among mentioned potential changes were trade relations, economic relations and relations over migration. This ominous statement from the French President seems to echo what Economy Minister Macron said prior to the summit, however the French have made it clear that they would not simply tear up the bilateral agreements between the two European nations.

Nevertheless, consequences of a Brexit are something which pro-Brexit campaigners have been reluctant to admit or discuss in the referendum campaign so far. Mr Macron in his Thursday statement also made clear allusions not only to rolling out a red carpet for financiers currently working in London, but also a more general loss of access to the Single Market. France 24 reported the Minister as saying there would be thousands of French citizens, currently working in London, who would “find themselves without the ‘passport’ rights that allow them to operate across the EU.” He followed this up by saying that, having seen Britain walk away, “the EU’s collective energy would be spent on unwinding existing links, not creating new ones”. This is another ominous sign to British voters, who have been told by pro-Brexit campaigners that Britain would be able to work out trade deals with our previous partners which would not harm our economic performance. Whilst there’s no doubt that Britain would continue to trade with the continent, whether the same levels as now could be maintained still remains up in the air.

A good move by the Remain campaign?

It is difficult to say who was the mastermind behind these recent warnings from the French government. It is widely perceived that the British Prime Minister will be courting is European allies to come out clearly in favour of Britain remaining in the EU, and having already made warnings about the Calais camps, it seems quite the coincidence that the French government comes out not a month later seemingly confirming the Prime Minister’s statement. However, if we just assume that the French came to this conclusion of their own volition, how effective is this almost threat in influencing British voters?

On the one hand it certainly causes more problems for the Leave campaign, who have been struggling ever since the referendum was confirmed to persuade British voters that the costs and impacts of Brexit are outweighed by the benefits – and that’s assuming they admit they exist at all. As ‘Project Fear’ mounts, driven by David Cameron’s campaign machine, it seems unlikely the British voter will become anymore positively optimistic or supportive of the EU, and instead more uncertain and pessimistic about the alternatives. This may be a good strategy to win a referendum, but to solve the fundamental problem of British distrust and uncertainty of the Union, this will not cut it. As with the Scottish referendum in 2014, whilst the vote was won by the ‘Better Together’ campaign, the problem of Scottish separatism was not solved at all, and could potentially bubble over in the event of a British exit from Europe. Furthermore, whether the British voter is going to be persuaded by French bullying, as this may be perceived, is dubious. More likely the British eurosceptic who has subscribed particularly to the sovereignty based argument may see this a further evidence of the continent pushing British democracy around, and undermining the sovereignty of the British electorate. I doubt intervention in this way from foreign powers will have particularly strong positive impressions on British voters either sitting on the fence, or not fully committed to the out-vote. Furthermore, I see this as making the British government look weak, and being bullied and pushed around by other powers. Whilst the French would have every right to end the agreement which I think is based on common EU-inspired trust between our two nations, as opposed to genuine benefits for the French government, it is clearly a political move to announce it in a British newspaper unofficially prior to an Anglo-French summit. If every European nation is going to subscribe to the Prime Minister’s lead, bullying and fear-mongering Britain into remaining, then I have serious doubts about the long-term effects of a remain vote. Whilst the battle may be won, the war for the hearts and minds of the British people would be far from convinced.

Sources: France 24, FT, Les Echos