Many Brexit campaigners have expressed how incensed they are over the weekend, in response to US President Obama’s comments over Brexit. From claims that his opinion is irrelevant, to suggesting some mystical link to the President’s ethnic heritage, the Brexit-brigade have once again dismissed a view that many would say you should pay heed to. However it’s not just President Obama’s view that they have dismissed; just about every Head of State and Government who have commented against Brexit have been denounced as irrelevant or conniving in some plot with the Prime Minister to repress the voice of the British people. However, I want to argue just why they are so wrong.

The main problem with the Brexiteers’ argument is that it is founded on the idea that to the rest of the world, it is largely irrelevant whether Britain is in the EU, or outside it. It makes no difference to America, or even Europe. As has been argued by some, it is as if the EU is a constant, out their which exists completely irrespective of whether Britain remains in it or not. What they don’t seem to realise is the scale of the shock that Britain not leaving the EU would be on the Western World.

The argument can sometimes go that international politicians and organisations argued that Britain should enter the euro in 1999, which is followed by the triumphant claim that ‘clearly as we can see, this would have been a terrible idea’ (which I disagree with on the basis that we don’t know what would have happened, that the euro’s problems are more due to bad government and choices than anything else). Regardless, there is a fundamental difference between joining something and withdrawing. At its simplest, not joining an entity (or single currency) means nothing changes – there’s no shock, there’s no shift, there’s no difference and therefore uncertainty. So when Britain decided not to join the euro, there was no major game-changing shock which would change the face of Britain; things remained the system and businesses, the markets, civil society etc. could live with that. Perhaps we lost out on some advantages/disadvantages but these are long term and are not taken into consideration. However, Brexit is a very different animal; it represents a massive shift in the status quo, with unseen ramifications which could impact any corner of British society. I think there hasn’t been a single commentator on the subject who hasn’t admitted the potential short-term shock to the British economy, even if Brexiteers will follow that up with a rejection of any negative long-term consequences.

I believe however that even if you discount the economics, there are serious long-term effects of Britain withdrawing from the Union which could be a disaster for the civilised world. Specifically, Britain’s withdrawal from the EU could lead to the further destabilising of an already disintegrating Union, and the eventual destruction of the European state system.

What is my line of thought with this seemingly apocalyptic series of events? I think it’s clear to anyone who’s paying attention that a Brexit and a potential disintegration of the EU would be a complete and utter victory for the right-wing of Europe. Yes, leftists do have major problems with the Union, which has been advocating and advancing neoliberal policies every since the 1980s now, however the vast majority are not anti-EU. Whether it’s Podemos in Spain or SYRIZA in Greece, none have advocated leaving the EU as a solution to their countries’ problems, and so they shouldn’t. Who does resort to this simplistic ‘solution’ on a daily basis? Who cheers in the parliaments of Europe when the mere mention of ‘the unravelling of the EU’ is mentioned? The far-right; Le Pen, Farage, Golden Dawn, the Freedom Parties of Austria and the Netherlands. They look at the EU and pretend to hate the austerity economics, but their chief enemies are internationalism, cooperation across borders, a world without nationalism, human rights and the fight against climate change – everything the EU at its heart represents. So yes, I thoroughly believe that an unravelling will aid and vindicate a far-right in Europe which has been bubbling away for some time now. To be clear, we’re talking about the far-right here, not the neoliberal right. The neoliberals want to keep Europe, but fashion it into something unpolitical and ultimately unsustainable. But the far-right want to not only destroy European cooperation, but make it inconceivable.

And that is exactly what an unravelling will achieve. The collapse of the European project will be something ugly and disheartening for any pro-European that remains on our continent. Why? Because it will discredit and render defunct the idea of European cooperation for the next generation of Europeans (at least). Especially if Brexit triggers further referendums across the rest of the EU (Marine Le Pen has already spoken of a ‘Frexit’ referendum should Front National come to power in 2017), then the rapid and ugly domino effect of one country tumbling out of the Union after another will destroy the political credibility of any party and any politician that has campaigned and fought for the EU. Couple this with the collapse in public perceptions of the moderate centre, which has without exception staked its political prospects on the EU, and you have an enormous set-back in centre-ground politics, the politics of internationalism and of European cooperation, the terms being so tied to the failed project of European integration. At the same time that the left and the centre is discredited, we find the far-right victorious in its crusade against tolerance, understanding, internationalism and post-nationalism.

Now we must consider the third element, which is economic depression. I agree that in the long-term, a Brexit taken on its own and without any changes in other factors (which is a dubious assumption anyway), would not cause lasting damage to the British economy (or, for that matter the European economy). However, the fragmentation of the euro and with it the EU could certainly cause lasting damage to the economies of continental Europe, which would most certainly draw in Britain, no matter whether it’s a member at the time or otherwise. Economists the likes of Yanis Varoufakis and Martin Sandbu both have argued the negative impacts of a eurozone disintegration, with Varoufakis providing the most developed argument. The newly founded national currencies following a euro-break up would go one of two ways; some would begin appreciating, due to the high level of exports those economies have (Germany, Austria, the Netherlands). Others would depreciate rapidly due to the massive trade deficits those economies have (Spain, Portugal, Italy and potentially France). The appreciating currencies would find their economies in a deflationary recession due to the increased costs of their exports, thus pulling the rug out from under their economies, and the depreciating currencies would find their cpsts for imports sky-rocketing after the resulting loss of purchasing power. Europe is plunged into a depression the likes of which we haven’t seen since the 1930s, and whenever such a depression occurs, it is the far-right, not the forces of progress, which benefit. The combining factors would put the forces of reaction in a position of power from which the final fragmentation of our European state-system would become inevitable.

It sounds dystopian. It sounds like scaremongering. However the signs are there. Borders are being erected across Europe, and the far-right is gaining ground every day, every election. Furthermore, this ‘recovery’ is teetering on the brink; it would only take one major shock to thoroughly destabilise it, and Europe is sitting on an enormous one. Every time in history the European state-system has disintegrated, it has only led to suffering and destruction. I do not think it would cause a war, however European civilisation would be set back decades. Everything that has been built, the resources, the political capital and the rhetoric that has been invested into the European project would be burnt down and swept away, and on its remains would be built something far more hideous. People can see that, leaders can see that. This is why every international leader other has implored the British people to think carefully and has argued in no uncertain terms against Brexit. All but Vladimir Putin, who as we know would much prefer the European state-system disintegrate. This is why we must avoid the collapse of the European Union above all costs, and that by no means suggests we should leave the Union as it is, because the way it is now will lead to its disintegration regardless. Britain is the first test; it starts here and we cannot allow ourselves to make the foolish choice out of protest – and not even effective protest at that.