Friday 13th July, 2018

A spectre is haunting Europe

This time it is not the workers’ revolution however, but the white man’s revolution – or, I should rather say, counter-revolution. And we shouldn’t make the mistake of thinking it is simply the white working-class either, but the white people of all classes and all European nations. The form this spectre has taken for the moment is Donald Trump, who arrived in Europe on Wednesday for the NATO summit, before flying to Britain on Thursday night to be hosted by Theresa May for the official State Visit. And frankly, despite any claims to the contrary, he has done as all spectres do – sent fear rippling through the chancelleries of Europe and shivering down their occupants’ spines.

As the G7 Summit showed, as previous statements and speeches by the US President showed, Donald Trump aims to be a force of disruption and destabilisation. It seems that this is nevertheless still surprising reporters, journalists and politicians across our continent, as Trump’s actions are reported and commented on with barely contained horror. ‘Can you believe he is really threatening the collapse of the Transatlantic alliance?!’ Yes, yes, many of us can, because that’s exactly what he says he intends to do and has said so ever since his rotten tomato of a face rolled into the limelight of international politics. But not only that, significant sections of the American establishment and elite are behind him, and certainly not challenging him, as is his base in the American public. What his motivations or interests are however, are not our concern as Europeans. All that matters is this is happening. Obama already began the pivot to Asia; though not as brutal or destructive as what is taking place now, it shows that this continent of ours no longer commands the position of significance in American eyes that it once did, and there’s nothing we can do to change that, whatever arguments we might have. In 1971, when Washington decided the Bretton Woods System was no longer working for them, they pulled the plug. No, they did not consult Europe; no, they did not care what the effect would be on us. If Trump and his lackeys in the US government are starting to believe NATO has also assumed the status of nuisance being taken advantage of, then all that matters is: what is Europe going to do next.

Europe has not had to think in this strategic manner in a very long time, such faculties being ceded to the US largely in 1945 (for the West at least), and it shows. We were given the luxury of not having to run especially large military budgets, especially after 1989 and the end of the Cold War. Meanwhile, whilst the defence capability of the European continent shrivelled, the US military budget ballooned. And don’t let the headline figures fool you, 2.1% of British GDP or 1.24% of German GDP is far further from the US’ 3.5% than it seems – the US spends £610bn on its military, which is approaching three times that of China, almost ten times that of Russia and more than ten times of anything Britain, France or Germany can muster alone. And this brings us to the NATO defence spending target of 2% of GDP, which only 3 other countries besides the US have met based on projections for 2018. The most painful element of this whole mess is that on the baseline issue, Trump is correct. The burden of defending the European continent is squarely on American shoulders. Were the US to withdraw from NATO, the military security of Europe would be immensely weakened. So when the orange ape blunders over here screaming about Germany being a captive of Russia and the like, we are faced with a dilemma.

The fact is, Europe does need to step up its defence spending and own arrangements for its collective defence. As much as some commentators fear it, the Transatlantic alliance will not last forever – and if America stays on the same political course it has been for the past decade, nor should it. We do not share the same values as Trump, or his Republican Party. Theoretically, we should have abandoned the imperialism the US displays on a daily basis long ago. If Europe wants to champion the law-based international order, it cannot do it clinging to America’s coat tails. But it will only be able to let go of these if it no longer relies on the US for its defence.

And yet at the same time there is something pathetic about the mass panic ensuing in NATO after the Thursday meeting between Trump and the other NATO leaders, when he supposedly threatened to withdraw the US if things didn’t change immediately. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary-General, saying “we will redouble our efforts” is like when Darth Vader tells the imperial officer to speed up the construction of the second Death Star in Return of the Jedi before the Emperor arrives (as “he is not as forgiving as I am”) If Trump is Vader I’m not sure I want to know who America will present as the Emperor, but regardless, it is a pathetic display by Europe’s leadership, subjugation of the first order. Of course, the NATO Secretary-General’s job is to keep the alliance strong and alive above everything. But what I’ve been seeing over the course of this week is NATO true-believers continue to insist that the alliance is not a US-run protection racket, and that Trump is wrong to speak of it as if it were. Except, of course it is, and he knows it and that if he whistles, Europe will come running. According to the FT, one NATO diplomat said on Thursday “All the allies know they are under scrutiny, they know they are under the microscope. This is not going to go away.” That scrutiny is of course, American scrutiny, and what isn’t going to go away is their assumption they can tell European democratic governments how they should run their countries. If Europe is going to increase its capacity for self-defence, this must be of its own volition, not because Washington has demanded it. Under current circumstances, America will never see Europe as an equal partner, and if we aren’t equal partners, we will continue to be bullied and sidelined by the likes of Trump. He is aware that the European Union is a direct threat to American hegemony on this continent. So if Europe wants to defend its values and its interests, it must be willing to use that power.

We are no longer living in the post-war world. Russia is steadily losing its ability to gain the US’ attention, just as China is rapidly gaining this ability. One day there will be a US President as polite and civilised as Obama who calmly and quietly reveals to us that Europe is no longer America’s top-priority. Rather than wait for that surprise, Europe must seize the moment now; it must form its own strategic vision, it’s own ability to defend the whole continent, its own foreign policy for the world. Because the alternative is what Britain is currently experiencing. Trump arrives and reveals that he is not impressed with the current state of Brexit, and on its current course, it will prevent a trade deal with the US. Apparently the retention of European product and safety standards is not compatible with free trade with America. And, while not in words, in spirit the May government says, like Stoltenberg, “we shall redouble our efforts”. The sheer cowardice of it, the total absence of strength and vision. This is the sovereignty that Brexiteers shouted from the rooftops we’d reclaimed. The lie and the delusion is staring at us right in the face. Rather than “Good! We don’t want your goods if they don’t meet world-class EU standards!”, May’s government has chosen nothing short of capitulation.

The old idea formed by Macmillan and Wilson about the “Special Relationship” was that Britain was Greece to America’s Rome. The thing is, unlike the accusations by Farage and the like about Britain and the EU, Greece was in fact Rome’s vassal; they were turned into a province of the Empire. And caught between America, willing to demolish any international rule or institution in the way of its interests, and Europe, founded on the idea of an international legal order, who do I trust more to guarantee Britain’s fair treatment according to the principles of law? The answer is clear, and that’s not to say the EU doesn’t have its own interests it will prioritise; but Europe will always be Britain’s home, and it will always be where we can best secure our peace and prosperity and champion the values of justice, democracy and freedom. The purpose of the European Project was to ensure the Old Continent did not have to look to the larger powers of America, China or Russia to determine its fate. Britain’s best chance of this then is sticking with Europe, and of course Europe’s best chance is sticking together, solving our divisions in-house, and developing our own ways and means to solve the challenges of this continent together.