The European Council is currently convening an emergency summit in the hopes of solving two of the most pressing issues currently facing the Union; the threat of Brexit, and the Refugee Crisis, which has brought more than a million people to Europe’s shores since the beginning of 2015. With closed borders appearing across the continent, Denmark and Switzerland confiscating refugees’ valuables, Austria limiting its inflow to 80 people per day and the Visegrád Bloc talking of a ‘Plan B’ to stop the flows of people leaving Greece, the Union has never seemed so divided in its direction. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister David Cameron also intends to finally conclude his negotiations to reform Britain’s place in the Union, in order to sell his ‘renegotiated membership’ to the British people, and convince them to vote to remain in the European Union.

Europe gives its prologue to the summit

As is the case with European Council summits, preliminary meetings were held by the major parties in the European parliament, including ALDE, EPP and PES. Sergei Stanishev, Chairman of Party of European Socialists (PES), said at the PES meeting that “I am proud that our progressive Prime Ministers will attend the Council meeting today to fight for a fair deal for the UK, and for Europe”, however the party said that the EU should not be eroded or undermined in the process. Leader of the British Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, also attended the meeting, confirming that he would be 100% campaigning for Britain to remain in the Union, regardless of the outcome of this week’s summit. He also agreed that the PES should campaign for a more social Europe that factors in more the rights of citizens into its purpose. The party also discussed the Refugee Crisis at their meeting, concluding that the decisions the EU has already taken regarding refugees (redistributing 160,000 of them), should be implemented by the member-states, and that isolating Greece would not be the way forward. “We all need to help Greece in managing our external border to protect free movement in the Schengen area” Party Chairman Stanishev said.

At the ALDE meeting, similar rhetoric could be heard. Hans van Baalen, Chairman of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), held the meeting of European liberal leaders, which includes 7 heads of state, and 5 Commissioners of the College. Leader in the Parliament Guy Verhofstadt was also in attendance. Furthermore, Tim Farron, leader of the British Liberal Democrats, was also there, and ALDE Chairman van Baalen said that “We had a very good exchange of views on Brexit and we also received very good advice from Tim Farron”. Of interest is the concrete proposal by ALDE for the European Border & Coast Guard, which Guy Verhofstadt explained later at the press conference that “that is the thing to do, and not to wait for legislation. It’s not necessary; in the Treaty, based on Article 78, they can as an emergency measure start with [the proposal]”. Tim Farron said that he had been able to encourage other liberal leaders in the Union to support the British proposal, and that they could then all work together to keep Britain in the EU. Ryszard Petru, leader of Nowozcesna, the Polish liberal party in the Sejm, said also that keeping Britain in the EU would weaken anti-EU forces in his country and that it would help tame the disintegration process.

Finally the centre-right EPP, which forms the largest faction in the chamber and leads the European Commission, also produced its statements in the build up to the Council summit. Chairman of the European Peoples’ Party (EPP), Joseph Daul, said on the subject of Britain’s negotiations “All sides are showing a strong political will to have an agreement, which is fair to all EU member states and their citizens.” He also made it clear that whilst preventing Brexit was crucial, nothing in the way of a veto for the City of London can be a part of the deal, as “We also need a competitive European economy with a strong Eurozone, one that is unimpeded by veto”. The EPP was also the only party to back the plan negotiated with Turkey last year, as the main tool with which to control the Refugee Crisis. On the subject, the Chairman had this to say “The EU partnership with Turkey is key to securing the Turkish-Greek border and reducing the influx of migrants to Europe. We must ensure that in the next couple of weeks all efforts are made to implement this action plan.” Manfred Weber, leader in the Parliament, has been the most positive voice from the 3 parties of the governing coalition in the Chamber, saying on Tuesday that “a lot of things David Cameron put on the table are EPP things; better regulation, competitiveness, big on big things, small on small things…a lot on the table which we can support as the EPP”.

Tensions build in the run-up to the summit

Prior to this week’s summit, a series of speculations have been made about the outcome of the discussions. In terms of Brexit, a series of British Ministers have begun to speak of the fear of a ‘domino effect’ in Europe, as a British exit from the Union could inspire similar moves among eurosceptic parties across the continent. The best case scenario of this would be a far more divided continent, with each nation carving out its own ‘Europe à la carte’; at worst however, this could lead to the complete unravelling of the Union. Marine la Pen has already spoken of a potential renegotiation with Brussels, should she win France’s Presidency in the 2017 election, with the threat of ‘Frexit’, should her demands not be accepted. Chancellor George Osborne and Foreign Minister Phillip Hammond have both spoken of a series shift in Britain’s biggest trading partner, should Britain leave the EU. Furthermore, Council President Donald Tusk also spoke of the rise of populism and anti-EU sentiment if Brexit occurred. The FT reported Phillip Hammond commenting on the possible impact of a Brexit, saying it could see the EU “lurch in very much the wrong direction”. The resulting spread of populism and eurosceptic sentiment in the EU has been described as a potential “contagion” by the Foreign Secretary. Meanwhile, Lord Bramall, former Chief of the General Staff also wrote this week that a Brexit would have profoundly negative effects on the EU, writing “a broken and demoralised Europe just across the Channel … would constitute a far greater threat to our future, indeed to the whole balance of power and equilibrium of the western world”. According to the latest ICM poll meanwhile, support for Britain in the EU is at 43% to 39% against, not including those who are unsure.

Meanwhile other worries have arisen in the run up to this summit. The much anticipated stumbling block of migrant social support has become a major issue, with many nations in the east of Europe wanting to ensure the protection of their citizens living abroad. The Visegrád Bloc, which met this week in Prague, made a statement that they want their citizens already living in Britain to be exempted from the proposed changes, which includes indexing child benefit payments to the equivalent of the country that those children live in, as well as restrictions from in-work social support for up to four years following a European citizen’s arrival in the UK. Poland, the largest power in the Visegrád Bloc, has an estimated 800,000 citizens living in the UK, and POLITICO Europe reported on Thursday that 8 Eastern European nations make up 8% of the British workforce. The Bloc also announced that it does not want the rest of Europe to have the same mechanisms to limit social welfare payments to migrant workers. Despite the disagreement, Le Monde reports that it’s likely that the summit will agree that whatever mechanism Britain gets, they will all agree that the exceptional conditions required are already the case in Britain, allowing Prime Minister Cameron to immediately implement the emergency brake.

What was less expected is the resistance from France and Belgium over the concessions given to Britain regarding the City of London. France 24 reported on Thursday that the French government has heavily stressed the fact that it does not want to see Britain get a veto or opt-out on financial regulation, which it sees could give British firms an advantage over those in the eurozone. It was pointed out in the France 24 article that already Britain enjoys several opt-outs and exemptions, and there is a fear overall in Europe that this deal will mark Britain simply getting a whole lot more, in contrast to the famous ‘Bloomberg Speech’ given by David Cameron in 2013, which suggested that his intended reforms would be for the whole of Europe. French officials in Paris want to ensure the deal given to Britain does not allow the City to benefit from less financial regulation than its French or German counterparts. President François Hollande said in Monday after a meeting between himself and Prime Minister Cameron that on the subject of EU reforms, there was “still work to be done [on the proposed EU reforms], especially on the issue of economic governance”, referring to the changes in the relationship between eurozone and non-eurozone countries, outlined in Donald Tusk’s negotiation paper he published on 3rd February. Some changes have been made to the document President Tusk first produced, and the final draft being debated at the summit can be viewed here, with a version with notes from the FT here. The language specifically on the subject of economic governance has been the subject of debate in France, with French Finance Minister Michel Sapin speaking of several “ambiguities”, which he said could lead to “a difference in treatment between London and the others”; this he described as unacceptable. Société Générale Chief Executive Frédéric Oudéa, chief of the French Banking Federation, also expressed concern, writing a letter to President Hollande and the Finance Minister. In it he wrote “If the plan is adopted in its current state, it would put an end to fair competition between financial actors”.

As was reported in Le Monde on Thursday however, many European diplomats want to turn their full attention to the subject of the Refugee Crisis that is engulfing Europe and dividing the Union. This has also thrown up new fears this week, as the Visegrád Bloc’s meeting in Prague this week yielded the so far most concrete fears of a de facto ejection of Greece from the Schengen Area, as Plan B was put forward by the Eastern European states. Although they conceded that Greece needed more time to begin to control the flow of people arriving on its shores, the Bloc announced that it would begin sending personnel and materials to the Bulgarian and Macedonian borders to begin constructing walls and defences if the Hellenic Republic did not get its act together. In an article in Rzeczpospolita, Prime Minister Beata Szydło gave the European Commission until the end of March to take control of Europe’s borders, otherwise she and her Visegrád colleagues would act for them; this was a joint declaration made after the group met on Monday. MacroPolis reports however that Greece has attempted to make its case this week, with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras holding conversations with Council President Tusk and Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. In those discussions he demonstrated Greece’s progress on recommendations made to it in a warning from the Commission last month; those include the construction of 4 ‘hotspots’ on the major islands in the Aegean Sea where refugees have been arriving, as well as 2 transit centres in Athens and Thessaloniki for processing arrivals to the mainland. SYRIZA PM Tsipras has been supported in his European diplomacy by the leader of the opposition party Νέα Δημοκρατία (ND), Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Mitsotakis has launched his own campaign to maintain Greece’s place in the Schengen Area, conducting rounds of diplomacy with European embassies in Athens, as well as through his allies in the EPP. Mitsotakis was present at the EPP pre-summit meeting on Thursday, to make his case there. In other news, the recent announcement by the Austrian government that it would limit refugee intake to 80 people per week was denounced by the Commission as illegal, and it is expected that President Juncker will bring this up at the summit. Immigration Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos wrote to the Austrian Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner this week saying that “Austria has a legal obligation to accept all applications for asylum in its territory or at the border”. La Repubblica also reports that Matteo Renzi made comments on the situation, expressing sympathy for the Austrian concern, however he argued that this was not the right strategy, and that “we have to work together”. He continued by saying “of course, the Dublin Regulation has failed, it is visible to everyone. It will not be easy, Italy will play its part, but the question is whether Europe will play its part”.

Despite the goodwill going into this week’s summit, naturally there are still cracks under the surface, and some even visible. Despite the less aggressive tone of the eastern European Bloc on Monday, there remains a fundamental divide between the German Chancellor and the Commission, and the Visegrád states who seem to be willing to take matters into their own hands. Furthermore, regarding Brexit, despite the positive tones from German Chancellor Merkel and the Commission, and the constant talk of goodwill for the deal to be made, the fundamental disagreements and areas of vagueness in the proposals will allow for some hotly contested debate at the summit. Donald Tusk admitted this week that there is no certainty that the deal will go through. Also, just European premier except for the Chancellor has said something along the lines of ‘we want Britain in the EU, but not at any price’. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Cameron has made it clear on the morning of the summit that he will only accept a deal that works, and will not agree to simply anything. There is the concern that the Brexit discussions may take so long that the Refugee Crisis does not get its fair share of the time, which when thought about she be the majority of the summit. ALDE Leader in the European Parliament Guy Verhofstadt has been pushing for the summit to be focussed on the refugee crisis instead of Brexit ever since December.

Sources: FT, FAZ, POLITICO, La Repubblica, Rzeczpospolita, Le Monde, France 24, MacroPolis